aldersondrive2007:

 the digitalization of matter starts to take off.

John Koza's inventing machine and others might start feeding upon themselves, a machine that invents beter versions of the software that evolves, therefore accelerating the evolution and then making it possible to invent better technology

It will be interesting to see John Koza's inventing machine as code in desktop pc's. Extrapolated as a process instead of a dedicated processing cube, it will be interesting to see the result of John Koza's inventing machine if it was mass implimented in millions of (evolving) machines.

There is no question that the average person has more technology today than 10 years ago.

1996 = 1200 for a  PC 486 75mhz desktop with a 500mb disc drive and windows 95.

2006 = 500 for a 686 2.3 Ghz tower and 40 GB harddrive - and that is at commodity pricing!

In 1996 ipods, mp3players, DVD, inexpensive digital video, netflix, thin prescription glasses, better building processes, better medical practices... DID NOT EXIST.

I think Ray is right that we are seeing, living in, and benefiting from massive excellerated change.

I also believe, finding the key to better than human intelligence in machines will be sort of like how microwaves were discovered. A tech climbed a radar dish to remove some birds that had nested, and just so happened had a candy bar in his pocket. While working in the radar dish, while the radar was turned on, the candy bar melted. This led to the discovery of microwave radiation.

It will be many little advances, and a simple "why didn't I think of that." to make ai and agi work.

John Koza's inventing machine opimized for pc's might make a 466mhz pc smarter than a human.

I can not wait for the future.